As if there was any doubt left about how much of a buzz Avengers: Infinity War is generating, we now have numbers to back that sentiment. According to multiple sources, Infinity War is on track for a mammoth $200 million+ opening weekend. In fact, those numbers could only fall at the lower end of the spectrum as Box Office Pro reports that the movie could open anywhere between $219 million to $240 million. Before you think those are wild numbers, remember that Black Panther was initially tracking for an opening weekend to the tunes of $100 million before projections steadily increased. Even so, none were able to anticipate its humongous $200 million plus opening. Not to mention Infinity War has a huge $300 million plus budget, some of it will also factor in its marketing.
Infinity War has the advantage of not only including the said Black Panther among its cast members but also a myriad of others including Iron Man, Captain America, Thor, Guardians of the Galaxy, Doctor Strange and Spider-Man. Each of these superheroes have led successful movies in their own franchises, with some even having billion dollar entries. Also, looking back at the past, The Avengers opened to a $207 million weekend in 2012 and while Avengers: Age of Ultron dropped a bit with its $191 million opening in 2014, it was largely because of the nature of the sequel which came across in marketing as more an extension of the original than anything else. Infinity War on the other hand is being touted as a massive event movie bringing 10-Years’ worth of heroes together to battle a villain Thanos that himself has been teased for over half a decade. Clearly then, Anthony and Joe Russo’s Avengers: Infinity War has a lot more going for it than Joss Whedon’s Avengers sequel did and that should help put these numbers in perspective.
Disney at their end is opting for a cautious approach in projecting its opening weekend estimates. Disney analysts are claiming an opening of no more between $175 million – $200 million, pretty much in lines with what Avengers: Age of Ultron and Captain America: Civil War ended up opening to. It appears with these two Avengers movies, the owner of Marvel may have ended up making less than they anticipated and are clearly not letting the unexpected success of Black Panther influence their tracking estimates. The fact that there are no Holidays in store around that period for K-12 schools in the US, which constitutes the largest bracket of the movie’s potential audience, could also be a factor in Disney’s conservative estimates. It should also be noted as in the case of Black Panther though, that we’re still 3 weeks away from April and tracking only gets increasingly stronger as the release date approaches. Remember, Avengers: Infinity War outsold Black Panther in advance ticket sales in under 6 hours. Regardless of critic reviews, this movie will definitely be no slouch.
What are your thoughts on these numbers? How much do you think Avengers: Infinity War could end up opening to in its opening weekend? Sound off with your thoughts in the comments below.