With its record-setting 24-hour advance ticket sales, Captain Marvel is looking at a potentially strong opening weekend. If Box Office Pro’s estimates are to be believed, Captain Marvel could make anywhere between $140 – $180 million in its opening weekend. And while it’s too early to guess box-office totals, Box Office Pro puts the movie’s lifetime domestic gross at $465 million.
Those are huge numbers for several reasons. The fact that it’s a female-led origin superhero movie notwithstanding, the figure denotes the opening for a three-day weekend. Contrast this with Black Panther where we reported last year that it was tracking for a sub-$100 million opening weekend, an estimate which gradually grew with each passing day until its release when it shattered all records, making $202 million. That was over a four-day Memorial-Day weekend though. The comparison only makes the numbers for Captain Marvel seem more impressive since the marketing campaign’s aggressiveness will only now kick in. Besides, it has a two month lead time to its release, compared to the 1.5 months that Black Panther had.
Box Office Pro also highlights possible risks, including the presence of big-ticket movies like Dumbo in late March and Shazam in early April, that could lead audiences to hold back on going for Captain Marvel if reviews are tepid. However, the fact that it has two weeks for itself should give it plenty of room to accumulate a decent sum. Moreover, the curiosity around Avengers: Endgame, which should only further intensify once the second trailer releases around March, should only push more people to see it, considering how important a role Captain Marvel could play in that movie. At this point, practically anything that comes before Endgame and has ties to it has a shot at amassing a large audience.
Finally, opening weekend estimates generally tend to get better for blockbuster films, assuming they’re marketed well and negative word-of-mouth does not set in. With Disney having Marvel Studios’ back, it’s highly likely Captain Marvel will receive a strong push in the weeks before its release. I’d place my bets on it getting a Superbowl spot as well, along with one for Avengers: Endgame (remember, we got one for Infinity War).
Do these numbers have you excited for Captain Marvel? Have you booked your tickets already? Let us know in the comments below.
Captain Marvel releases in theaters worldwide on March 8, 2019. Stay up to date on the movie and follow our coverage by hitting the like button below and / or enabling notifications when our site asks.